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Old Apr 10, 2010, 10:59pm   #1
GoldfishUltraDeluxe
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Default Delayed aggression / Drawing for blanks

I have become slightly more passive on the flop lately, but it seems to induce a lot of beats. This is to some extent a whining post, because I think variance has hit me, but I like to take the opportunity to improve my game.

I don't slowplay the flop to let others improve to a worse holding, I (c/)call on a drawy flop, when I hold two pairs, to...

1. Look for a blank turn, which often means at least ~25 outs
2. Avoid representing a really strong hand on the flop, to get called more often on the turn and river.
3. Give the drawing villain worse odds on the turn by avoiding building a big pot already on the flop.


An example:

5 player in a limped pot, I have on SB

Flop (5 BB = BigBlinds)



My first thought is c/r, but I chose c/c according to argument above (note: no. 3 is less valid in this instance.)

Blanks should be non-clubs, non-aces, non-tens, non-nines and non-queens, which means 46-13-3-3-3-3 = 21 outs, however, there are 4 of us close betting on a single bet, so my "blank-drawing" odds should be a lot better, since a lot of the counted outs should be among the hole cards of my opponents.

Turn (9 BB)



Here I'm obviously behind some of the three villains, but with a second nut flush draw (even SF draw), probably at least one ace for a split pot and the full house outs I'm going to follow along to the river due to odds. The round went to 4-bet, of course.


River (25 BB)




That's poker. When I'm drawing for a blank, one of the worst cards arrive and when I draw for a hand, the blank shows up immediately.


Questions:

1. Should I *always* just c/r this flop?

2. Can I put my opponents upon holdings that will make it possible for me to lay down my hand on the turn, anticipating that the "blank" is so likely to show up that I don't get the right odds anyway?
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Old Apr 11, 2010, 1:25am   #2
killcrazy
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldfishUltraDeluxe View Post
1. Should I *always* just c/r this flop?
you shouldn't be always checkraising, but you should be building the pot for sure. either bet and threebet or checkraise and fourbet

you have to charge the other players to see the turn. Lets say the other players have AsQs and 87c, you've got 50% equity in this pot. so yeah, you are going to lose this pot 50% of the time, but poker isn't about winning pots. it's about winning money, getting as much money in the middle as you can while you're a favourite. you're evens to win this pot and you're getting paid 2:1, big edge, get as much in the pot as you can.

Quote:
2. Can I put my opponents upon holdings that will make it possible for me to lay down my hand on the turn, anticipating that the "blank" is so likely to show up that I don't get the right odds anyway?
you'd be better off calculating your pot odds, and you almost certainly have them.

err conservative and say all the aces are dead, so you have 8 hearts and 4 kings or jacks, that's 12 outs. so someone bets and you have to figure out whether to call, but you also know there's a very high probability that someone is going to raise and then there'll be a reraise and you have to call more bets. so you decide whether you can call a cap profitably before you call the first bet.

if two guys cap off, that puts 8 BB in the pot. the pot already has 4.5BB so the worst case odds are 12.5:4 you're getting just better than 3:1, in a spot when you have 30 non outs to 12 outs. You have comfortable pot odds to take the river even if the betting is capped on the turn.

if you spike a heart on the river, at your limits, be prepared to cap off. the only hands you lose to are AXh, and most of your opponents are still going to think that any ace is the nuts.

but for the sake of argument, if you were playing 30-60, you would need to consider that anyone capping off on the river is likely to have a flush too because these players are not going to cap blindly with the straight.

they know that you have to have at least an ace to be raising. they also know that if you have an ace and they have an ace the pot is getting split, so they wouldn't be reraising because they never make money on the bet. reraising means they can beat an ace, which means they have a flush. if they were also pushing the action on the turn, it's extremely likely they have the nut flush.

in fact it's almost impossible for them to have any other flush. they can't have been playing a pair that has turned a flush draw, because you have both the king and the jack, and they can't have been playing a straight draw that turned into a flush draw, because nobody is going to call the flop with the worst possible chinese gutshot and no pair.

so the 4h comes off, they bet, you raise and they reraise, they have AXh more than 50% of the time, and you should flat call. in fact, with some opponents, you wouldn't even raise because you're never getting value on that bet.

but here is an idea, have a think about it. on the turn someone bets, you call, someone raises and the original bettor reraises. now, you know that this is getting capped 99% of the time, because the raiser has to have an ace. so you can make the 4bet yourself. this makes it look like you have an ace, and will make it more likely you'll get paid on the river when you hit. your draw hasn't cost you any more than it was going to anyway, but the return is fractionally better.

Kc
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