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May 11, 2010, 10:04am
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#1
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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@Ozone, Twogun - Politics props on Intrade
Arlen Specter to win the Democratic nomination for 2010 Pennsylvania Senate is paying 25.0 on Intrade, his actual odds are lower than 5.0 at the moment
I was on this a while back (not for money but I felt Sestak was better 50% even when Specter was 80.0)
Anyway, just giving you guys an opportunity to win your money back that you lost betting politics with me
Throwing $500 on this (Specter to lose nomination/Sestak to win) to win $250 is a very very solid investment, which should have a >100% ROI on average if you were to make the bet right now 100 times.
I'll do some more analysis to put an exact line if either of you actually want to bet, i'll throw on a bit with you (don't have an intrade acct can do xfer from whatever site) if either of you are interested. If you are let me know and i'll do an hour or so's research to confirm the actual odds, Specter is between 5.0 and 10.0 at the moment on a quick look.
Consider this my election betting guide
For anyone who doesn't know, i'm about 11/12 in politics prop bets lifetime at an average of about 1.5-1 in my favour (won two 5-1s in my favour, rest all at evens or close, lost a 5-1 in my favour)
I'll be putting any good politics bets here for the remainder of the leadup to the 2010 US election
@Mods move to the rail if you like I dont mind either way
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May 11, 2010, 10:12am
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#2
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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BTW it's too early to bet on any house/senate races yet, Republicans to retake house at 46.0 is a bad bet, it's more like 28-30 at the moment but i'll know for sure one way or the other a few weeks out.
Dems to control senate is a lock, you can lock that in if you can get anything under 85.0 worst case for the dems is basically losing 8 seats and picking up zero barring several major unforseen scandals and that still gives them 51 with Lieberman (who isn't a guarantee) and Sanders (who is a lock to caucus with them)
In any case if you can find it under 90 it's +EV and under 80 it's an easy four figure bet.
I'll have more info closer to the elections in any case and can find some actual lock bets for anyone who wants to make free money. The senate races should provide some good value this year, in some cases on the D and in other cases on the R.
@Ozone have you been doing any intrade betting recently?
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May 11, 2010, 10:25am
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#3
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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There's going to be value in one of the lines on how many seats the R's game in the house but I have to wait a few months until some of my favourite analysts do their thing before i'll have a decent range.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has solid analysis as do several progressive blogs.
FL-Sen will be easy to call a few weeks out, not yet though. At this stage Rubio (R) is actually decent value at 44 I think although I wouldn't bet on this race until I see how Crist's I bid starts out
PA-Sen could go either way although the D nominee at 30.0 is good value on Intrade (i'm assume it's Sestak and he's only polling 2 behind the right wing extremist the Rs have nominated)
D-Feingold to hold WI is good value at 75.0
Missouri will have good value on one of the candidates but I don't know which yet
R candidate to win KY is good value at up to 80 is good value if you can get it.
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May 11, 2010, 3:08pm
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#4
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Professional
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Paris, france
Posts: 1,395
Reputation: 941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Throwing $500 on this (Specter to lose nomination/Sestak to win) to win $250 is a very very solid investment, which should have a >100% ROI on average if you were to make the bet right now 100 times.
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lol mathament.
If u win 100% of the time u have a 50% ROI
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TWLLM
I'm inclined to agree with Seb
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May 11, 2010, 5:16pm
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#5
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The One Who Knocks
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: The Internet
Posts: 5,034
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
@Ozone have you been doing any intrade betting recently?
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No.
Also, I'm amazed how confident you are in these picks. I mean, for all I know it's justifiable, I just don't know how you have any information that makes you think you can beat the market.
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ItsOrangeNotRed.com
"How do I become more pro? I gotta learn math?" - fuedallord
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May 11, 2010, 5:39pm
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#6
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Professional
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,248
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I dunno, he gonna research bout an hour. Solid imo.
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May 11, 2010, 5:42pm
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#7
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Professional
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,248
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I did lol at the comment on those progressive blogs. That might be buying past peak.
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May 12, 2010, 5:52am
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#8
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb47
lol mathament.
If u win 100% of the time u have a 50% ROI
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lol mathament
I meant if you make this bet an infinite number of times....and then had a logic fail and screwed up the numbers
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May 12, 2010, 5:53am
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#9
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmytrick
I did lol at the comment on those progressive blogs. That might be buying past peak.
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I mean some of them do independent polling, they've been pretty accurate going back to 2004 when Bush won
Obviously the opinion is biased/overly optimistic for the Ds
But if you want to set a line on how many seats the Rs will win in the house and Senate i'll consider taking the under depending what line/odds you set
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May 12, 2010, 5:58am
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#10
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CAPITAO
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozone
No.
Also, I'm amazed how confident you are in these picks. I mean, for all I know it's justifiable, I just don't know how you have any information that makes you think you can beat the market.
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Joe average doesn't spend an hour a day reading polling data, political analysis sites etc.
It's too early for me to call any of these bets a lock i'm just putting value out there where I see it.
Closer to the election i'll be able to make some solid picks which I will back with my own money. I'm just starting this thread early incase anyone wants to spazz out and offer me ridiculous odds on anything
Sestak at 75.0 is solid imo. He's running better ads, remember it's a D primary, Specter is a former Republican. The electors here aren't your average sample of the electorate the way that. Sestak has been down 10+ points due to low name recognition the whole way, now that he's on the air nonstop in PA running ads reminding the D primary voters that
Also he's polling better than Specter vs Toomey (the R) and he's surged to a 4-5 point lead.
Think Lamont-Lieberman in CT in the primary. The more progressive candidate usually overperforms on primary day.
I'd say Sestak wins 53-47 or 54-46 on primary day at this stage barring some unforseen event.
Specter's only chance is super low turnout for Sestak + democratic establishment getting out the vote for him but it won't happen.
Edit: I'm not saying that he's going to win the general (although he might; i'll know in a few mths) i'm saying he's going to win the primary. Just making that clear.
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Last edited by SwoopAE; May 12, 2010 at 6:04am.
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