THE FORUMS


German ForumsGeneral DiscussionStrategyFrench Forum

Go Back   PokerTips.org Forums > General Discussion > PokerTips Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Aug 25, 2010, 6:08pm   #111
123money321
Doyle Look-alike
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Whitby, Ontario
Posts: 448
Reputation: 113
123money321 will become famous soon enough123money321 will become famous soon enough
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Interested in 1.5 : 1 OH - Sen Race?
__________________
Live Poker Player and NHL fan
123money321 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Don't like this ad? Register to make it go away!

Old Aug 25, 2010, 10:31pm   #112
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Not unless you're giving me the Republican. Things have got a lot worse for Fisher and Dems nationally since I made my last major update.

It could easily change again when the electorate is paying attention but i'm standing pat on all Ds for now and will start investing in Rs post Labor day if the numbers don't start improving.
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.

SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Aug 25, 2010, 10:33pm   #113
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 123money321 View Post
I dunno about reid anymore. Things seem to have tightened up and republicans are gonna be more energized in november then dems. Regardless, 2:1 was a steal, especially considering Reids bankroll.
It's still a steal at 2-1 and Reid is up to 47% in polling (last one I saw was 47-47), when an incumbent hits 50% he's home.

I'd still invest further in Reid if anyone is willing to lay me 2-1
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.

SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Aug 25, 2010, 10:34pm   #114
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
It's still a steal at 2-1 and Reid is up to 47% in polling (last one I saw was 47-47), when an incumbent hits 50% he's home.

I'd still invest further in Reid if anyone is willing to lay me 2-1
FWIW of the Ds I have money on, Reid is in better shape than Sestak and about equal with Feingold now, when I made the bet he was in worse shape than all of them.
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.

SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 1:42am   #115
123money321
Doyle Look-alike
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Whitby, Ontario
Posts: 448
Reputation: 113
123money321 will become famous soon enough123money321 will become famous soon enough
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Put $500 into intrade today. You guys are too smart and I need to make some bets.
__________________
Live Poker Player and NHL fan
123money321 est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 6:12am   #116
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 123money321 View Post
Put $500 into intrade today. You guys are too smart and I need to make some bets.
I can xfer to you on stars/tilt if you want to make some bets on my behalf if you're interested

I get this sickening feeling i'm going to be betting on more Republicans than I would care to this election. The only Ds that are favourites that I have money on are Feingold, Boxer and Reid. Sestak is a decent underdog now although he's not heavily on air yet and there's a good chance that one of the three I list as favourites loses.

Portman R is safeish in Ohio btw if anyone can still get any money on that at a decent price. No idea what Fisher's campaign is doing but I haven't seen poll numbers sink that fast in a long time.

Crist is looking bad in FL again, he has the problem that he wont say who he caucuses with since his support is like 60% D 40% R and he's going to alienate a lot of his support base if he answers. A bunch of Ds will vote Meek if he doesnt commit to caucusing with the Ds and if he does he loses the rest of his R support to Rubio. Maybe my initial gut reaction that Crist will fade eventually is right. I like Rubio if you can get evens or close to it here.
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.


Last edited by SwoopAE; Sep 08, 2010 at 6:24am.
SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 6:23am   #117
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Also

Blumenthal D wins in CT (Linda McMahon is rich but she's a bad candidate)

Paul R wins in KY if he keeps his mouth shut for the rest of the campaign and doesnt call anyone a macaca

Will lay anyone 1.5-1 on these two if they want the candidate I haven't picked

Gianoullias should win in IL by like 0.2% despite being a horrible candidate. Any other D would win by 5%+ vs Kirk.

Feingold will win Wisconsin. This is a gut feeling not an analytical one though but his opponent is gaffe-prone and Feingold is a great campaigner.

Dino Rossi (R) could easily pull off the upset in WA; i'd avoid laying money either way here though unless you're being laid odds either way

Boxer wins CA

Sestak needs to start climbing in the polls, if he hasn't gained any momentum by late September he's dead

The D in NC-SEN is a good longshot against Burr, if someone laid me 4-1 i'd consider it

For some reason i'm not sold on Buck beating Bennet yet in CO but he's a small favourite

Rubio is a 1.5-1 favourite now vs Crist

Reid beats Angle 60% or so from here

Manchin wins in WV obviously

Ayotte probably wins NH, although i'm not sure why this isn't closer

All of the other races don't really seem competitive
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.


Last edited by SwoopAE; Sep 08, 2010 at 6:26am.
SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 8:08am   #118
Ozone
The One Who Knocks
 
Ozone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: The Internet
Posts: 5,034
Reputation: 2425
Ozone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond reputeOzone has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to Ozone
Default

You're changing your tone, Swoop.
__________________
ItsOrangeNotRed.com

"How do I become more pro? I gotta learn math?" - fuedallord
Ozone est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 8:30am   #119
SwoopAE
CAPITAO
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 13,271
Reputation: 4070
SwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond reputeSwoopAE has a reputation beyond repute
This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile! This member received this PokerTips Exclamation Mark for one of a number of reasons: blogging, winning a contest, contributing great content, etc. Keep an eye out for chances to receive one of these by your profile!
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozone View Post
You're changing your tone, Swoop.
The data has changed. Ds look like holding about 52 seats now as opposed to 55 in my early analysis. This is mostly Obama's fault for selling his agenda poorly. The Ds have some self inflicted woulds though in places like IL, where nominating any other candidate makes it a lock instead of a flip. The Rs are the same in Nevada though I guess.

I'm still very marginally +EV on my bets btw even in the significantly worse political climate. If I could buy out of everything now at evens I probably wouldn't solely on the basis of my 2-1 Reid/Angle bet with you. My +EV from that outweight my currently marginal -EV in my two bets with twogun. Overall I think i'm about +$80ish EV wise with you and maybe -$25 with Twogun right now.

Having it over I'd ask for closer to evens on Feingold but I think he's going to get reelected about 58-60% so laying 1.4-1 isn't terrible. Reid is still swimming against the national trend because Angle is such an an unacceptably bad candidate. Reid wins about 60% so laying me 2-1 I love my side there.

CA/PA is actually probably about 13-70-17 now, marginally in twogun's favour but it was closer to 35-45-20 when I actually made the bet. Sestak's campaign has been very poor, mostly because they haven't gone on the air in key parts of the state yet. I'm also pretty sure Boxer will match Fiorina's spending late in the campaign and enough dems will come home to her that she'll hold.

Overall i think I win about 1.15 lose about 0.85 of my Reid/Feingold bets and i'm probably chopping on PA/CA, although he scoops me marginally more than I scoop him.

My situation is worse than it was a few months ago but marginally +EV still imo. I'll load up on republicans if the wave is coming, don't worry. It's still too early to know for sure how big the wave will be but rest assued i'm hedging off anything i'm going to lose the day before election day. I'll know the results three days out. For now i'm just trying to find +EV spots.

If Portman is still under 75 load up on him btw. Same with Rubio under 68ish. if you can get either Murray or Rossi at 40 buy either way. Buy Giannoulias at 55. Kirk at 40. I'd consider getting some D for NC-SEN at under 20 if we can too. NC loves to throw out incumbents and it's an anti-incumbent year not just anti D. Buy Buck at 60, Bennet at under 30. Feingold at up to 55. Reid at up to 55. Toomey if you can get him under 58 or so. Boxer at 55 if you can. Ayotte under 80.

A lot of value is going to be in the final week when we have real polling data with properly weighted averages to go on.
__________________
Chat Monitor (Support): SwoopAE has lost their chat privilege for 5 minutes. Spamming the table is prohibited.


Last edited by SwoopAE; Sep 08, 2010 at 8:42am.
SwoopAE est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Old Sep 08, 2010, 12:41pm   #120
Boilermaker
Get off my lawn
 
Boilermaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: damning whippersnappers
Posts: 4,599
Reputation: 2426
Boilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond reputeBoilermaker has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

Blumenthal D wins in CT (Linda McMahon is rich but she's a bad candidate)
McMahon is incredibly rich. I've received about 3 full color brochures from her in the mail each week for a few months. That kind of state-wide mailing is expensive. Interestingly of the ~20 total mailings from her, all but one only talked about how Blumenthal lied about being in Vietnam. That appers to be her only message.

I don't think she can catch him though. Most people are familiar with Blumenthal - he has been a very public AG and I think generally liked.
Boilermaker est déconnecté   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT. The time now is 8:25am. vBulletin 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.