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Old May 12, 2010, 7:06am   #11
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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Joe average doesn't spend an hour a day reading polling data, political analysis sites etc.
Joe Average also doesn't bet political props on Intrade.
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Old May 12, 2010, 10:14am   #12
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True

But you did and you bet on McCain against me at 50 and laid me 5-1 on Obama winning swing states (which he only needed like 52.5% of the vote to do) so there have to be some prop fish out there (yes i realise you weren't drawing dead but it wasn't anywhere near as close as you thought)
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Old May 13, 2010, 6:21pm   #13
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Hmm, I still think Sestak wins enough for the .70 you can get at the moment to be +EV but i'm not betting the house on it anymore. Also with Greyson falling apart in KY-Sen i'd wait and see before betting on R-Sen as well at .75 because, well, the R nominee looks like it's going to be the son of Ron Paul and he could easily implode despite this being a red state in a red year. If Greyson wins the R primary you snapcall .75 though.

Okay this is now a random bet on anything thread. I want to degen microstakes prop bet on random stuff.

Someone offer me a line on something.
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Old May 13, 2010, 7:23pm   #14
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New poll has Sestak up nine, seems to be a mixture of Sestak +5-9 and polls with them running even.

I'm gonna stick with my 53-47 prediction for now but there's more chance of a 15+ Sestak blowout than Specter winning by more than 2-3 points.
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Old May 17, 2010, 10:09pm   #15
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k nate silver says Sestak is a 3-1 fav but higher if there's low turnout, which seems likely given the weather. I trust his analysis more than any other.

It was 65/35 Sestak/Specter on Intrade earlier today which was good value, has dropped to 75/25 again which is pretty meh, i'd say the true odds are like 79-21 at the moment, Sestak didn't run away with it the way I thought he would be he should still usually win.

Also Rubio looks like good value now, Crist is sinking and will probably keep sinking without the Republican machine to prop him up. Shoulda got on that one early. I wouldn't be surprised if Meek actually outperforms him on election day, given that Meek's only polling 18% at the moment i'd definitely get on that at about 3.5 or 4-1 if I could (not sure where to find odds on that sorta thing)
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Old May 19, 2010, 1:13pm   #16
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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
FL-Sen will be easy to call a few weeks out, not yet though. At this stage Rubio (R) is actually decent value at 44 I think although I wouldn't bet on this race until I see how Crist's I bid starts out

PA-Sen could go either way although the D nominee at 30.0 is good value on Intrade (i'm assume it's Sestak and he's only polling 2 behind the right wing extremist the Rs have nominated)

D-Feingold to hold WI is good value at 75.0

Missouri will have good value on one of the candidates but I don't know which yet

R candidate to win KY is good value at up to 80 is good value if you can get it.
R to win KY isn't good value at 80 anymore since the Dems nominated the better of the two candidates and the Reps nominated the worse of the two. R's should still win but don't bet it at 80 yet.

Everything else here is still good value. Rubio is good value at up to 50. Feingold is good value up to 80.

Wait and see on PA-SEN but I have a feeling that 30 is either going to become 20 or 55 within a couple weeks and 55 is slightly more likely. Toomey is a really, really bad candidate in a blue-purple state.
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Old May 19, 2010, 1:15pm   #17
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I did lol at the comment on those progressive blogs. That might be buying past peak.
In my experience, Nate Silver has never been far off. I think he's a Democrat (i'm not sure) but his analysis beats the market every time.
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Old May 19, 2010, 1:20pm   #18
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Sestak at 75.0 is solid imo. He's running better ads, remember it's a D primary, Specter is a former Republican. The electors here aren't your average sample of the electorate the way that. Sestak has been down 10+ points due to low name recognition the whole way, now that he's on the air nonstop in PA running ads reminding the D primary voters that

Also he's polling better than Specter vs Toomey (the R) and he's surged to a 4-5 point lead.

Think Lamont-Lieberman in CT in the primary. The more progressive candidate usually overperforms on primary day.

I'd say Sestak wins 53-47 or 54-46 on primary day at this stage barring some unforseen event.

Specter's only chance is super low turnout for Sestak + democratic establishment getting out the vote for him but it won't happen.

Edit: I'm not saying that he's going to win the general (although he might; i'll know in a few mths) i'm saying he's going to win the primary. Just making that clear.
United States Senator
Democratic Primary


Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM) 564,169 54.0%
SPECTER, ARLEN (DEM) 481,351 46.0%

Let's call this 1 for 1 so far of my major picks this election season. I'm probably going to go 9 for 10 or better in this election. If anyone wants to make some money, just follow my picks obviously.
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Old May 19, 2010, 1:23pm   #19
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By the way, if you're smart here you buy sestak at 25, stop buying when I say, buy at 35.6 (the peak he reached) then stop buying again when I say as we reach the final day and you're sitting on a bunch of winning sestak shares at an average of 30ish.

Sports betting is for suckers. Election betting is where it's at.
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Old May 19, 2010, 1:25pm   #20
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I dunno, he gonna research bout an hour. Solid imo.
By the way on this point... put your money where your mouth is and bet against me on the next one?
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