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Old May 19, 2010, 8:11pm   #31
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Swoope, for Intrade, Dems need 50 seats excluding Sanders/Lieberman:

A party will be considered in control of the Senate if they:
1. Hold 51 (or more) Senate seats
2. Hold 50 Senate seats and has the Senate vote of the Vice President of the United States in his or her role as President of the Senate.
For expiry purposes any Senate seat held by an Independent who caucuses or votes with the Democrats will be considered Independent and NOT a Democratic seat. The same rule applies to any Independent who caucuses or votes with the Republicans.




So Republicans need to win a net 8 seats for the Dem to lose. They need to win 10 for Republicans to win. An 8-9 seat would be a win for the 'neither'


What odds/over under are you thinking about? I'll bet with ya. Can just PM me? For simplicity sake, let's exclude any weird last-minute party switching by Sanders/Lieberman, etc.



Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ican_year.html

I'm leaning towards the Rs falling WAY short of expected gains at this stage. I can see the Ds picking up 2 Senate seats to the Rs 5 or so at this point. I may be overestimating things based on a day where everything went right for the Ds (including nominating both the best candidates and my personal favourite candidates in PA and KY of the primary contenders)

Also if anyone cares, Rand Paul is a) an extremist and b) a douchebag and now that the Ds have nominated Conway, well, in any other year i'd say Conway will make a race of it and if the tide continues to turn back away from the Rs, a seat that should well be completely safe may end up being competitive and at the very least drain RNC resources.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...sion_call.html

Link is to Rand Paul being a fucking douchebag and refusing to take the concession call from his opponent. Who does that, seriously?

The Ds will lose seats this year in the house and senate, but at this point i'm betting it's nowhere near the wave Rs expect.

We'll know more in a few weeks.

Meanwhile, Ozone, do you want me to open a new Intrade account for our mini-venture towards getting Ozone unstuck from politics prop betting or can we use your existing one?
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Old May 19, 2010, 8:39pm   #32
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@Twogun Ok give me a day or so to set a line I need to do some reading. I need to look into OH, PA, NH, CO and NV in particular before I can set a line on the over/under for how many seats I expect the Ds to control after the midterms. I'm happy to take the Ds to hold the house at evens and almost certainly the senate but I need to do some more research first. How much do you want to bet, a couple hundred?

@Ozone that makes sense that Sanders and Lieberman don't count as Ds, the line is closer to neutral EV now, I was assuming they count as Ds. There still may be value but not yet.

It's true I have a D bias; mainly because I don't look for opportunities to bet on Rs since i'm a democrat myself and I like to watch democrats win - obviously betting on Rs (primaries aside) is like betting against your team; i'd imagine it's the same for you betting on Ds. That isn't to say theres no value in betting on Rs or that I won't if there's obvious value; I just think the market is marginally overestimating the gains Rs will make in the midterms (i'm not denying they will make gains obviously). Also as a liberal democrat myself, I know what D primary voters think like much in the same way you know how conservative/libertarian leaning republicans think.



Will fund the account in the morning (I have a hot thai chick next to me who needs attention) and we'll start investing tomorrow.
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Old May 19, 2010, 8:43pm   #33
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@Twogun how about this

$200 on Ds to hold the house at evens

$200 on the Ds to hold the senate at evens. Lieberman and Sanders aren't included, but in the event of a tie (50 dems exactly, plus any Is that caucus with them) I win. So basically if the Ds maintain control with Sanders and Lieberman for a total of 51 in the caucus (eight seat loss), you win, seven seat loss and I win. If lieberman defects it doesnt matter; 50 dems and I win, 49 and you win (or 51/50 with Sanders, 52/51 with sanders and lieberman). I'll give you Crist in Florida as a Republican hold as well, assuming he caucuses with them.
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Old May 19, 2010, 10:23pm   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
@Twogun how about this

$200 on Ds to hold the house at evens

$200 on the Ds to hold the senate at evens. Lieberman and Sanders aren't included, but in the event of a tie (50 dems exactly, plus any Is that caucus with them) I win. So basically if the Ds maintain control with Sanders and Lieberman for a total of 51 in the caucus (eight seat loss), you win, seven seat loss and I win. If lieberman defects it doesnt matter; 50 dems and I win, 49 and you win (or 51/50 with Sanders, 52/51 with sanders and lieberman). I'll give you Crist in Florida as a Republican hold as well, assuming he caucuses with them.
Cmon man, those odds are all way worse than Intrade, especially the Senate one, since that's basically laying Intrades dem contract except I'd get 3:1 instead of 1:1.
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Old May 19, 2010, 10:45pm   #35
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I always look for a ridiculous edge you know that

I'll look for a fairer line tomorrow after doing some research

Congrats on not getting hustled this time btw ;)
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Old Jun 16, 2010, 5:10pm   #36
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Swoop I'm just putting this in here so we don't forget: my $200 (no) vs. your $100 (yes) on Obama getting reelected.
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Old Jun 17, 2010, 1:23pm   #37
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Yeah thats fine. Hopefully this thread is still around in 2012. I'll actually make a sizeable bet once I know who the nominee is if they fail and nominate Palin or Huckabee or Romney or someone unelectable

Those are friendly odds btw since you bought me dinner; i'd offer about 1.2-1 to anyone who wants to make the bet at the moment.

I need to make a new email address to make a new intrade account since apparently I have an account I have no record of making; there's not much to bet on until polling starts picking up for the general elections
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Old Jul 02, 2010, 3:47am   #38
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Cliffnotes - The best bets right now are McCain to hold AZ at ~80ish, Sestak to win in PA at anything under 50, Boxer to win in CA at anything under 70 and Feingold to win in WI at anything under 70. Blumenthal at 80 for CT. I think Rand Paul is fine at 61 too because it's Kentucky and he's an R, but it's very volatile since he's a loose cannon/godawful candidate who may say something stupid and sink his own campaign.



Here are my rambly notes

Still not much to bet on Ozone; we'll start seeing some worthwhile trends/polling around late July early August for the general.

I've backed off Rubio for now from FL-SEN, he doesn't seem to be playing well with the Is and Crist is doing better than expected with the Ds; favouring Crist now but not enough to invest, my thoughts are mirroring the market so far on this one

We missed the boat on CA-SEN, Boxer had a lot better value a few weeks ago, she's still good value though.

If Rs to control the house hits about 63ish it's time to start buying D. Still too close to a flip to be worth investing @ 55. There's more value on this late when they start polling individual races and Nate Silver and 538 do their weighted analysis, they picked the 04 06 08 races pretty well.

I think there's value on Giannoiulous or w/e his name in at 40 in IL-SEN, he's a god awful candidate but so is Mark Kirk and it's a very blue state. If Obama campaigns for Gia he wins, otherwise probably not.

DE-SEN is interesting. Castle (R) is a huge fav but not 90% huge. Not worth the risk since it's a long shot. Beau Biden will take the seat from him in six years.

CT-SEN is a lock for Blumenthal at 80, lying about his record aside he's up 20 points in polls and the R candidate is Linda McMahon ffs (if you have watched WWE you'll know why she isn't viable)

Actually at 62 boxer is very solid value for CA-SEN. If nothing changes in that race and she's still in the low 60s we should get on that before the end of the month.

AR-SEN there's no value in betting against an incumbent at 5, even if it's Blanche Lincoln who is dead in the water.

For some reason someone bet against Lisa Murkowski in AK-SEN, she's a lock at 90

McCain is a lock for AZ-Sen @ 77, there's good value in him actually (assuming he wins the primary which he does like 99% of the time). A chance to make money betting ON mccain? What?

CO-Sen I see no value in either side @ current lines

KY-SEN... um... Rand Paul... 61... it's so red... but the guy is the worst candidate since Palin, so he may find a way to screw it up. I like Paul @ 61 over Conway at 39 but the race is too volatile. Rand Paul could come out tomorrow and say that black people are genetically inferior or start talking about abolishing the IMF and G8 or something for all I know.

@Ozone - I need to fund our Intrade account soon I think.

MO-SEN - Robin Carnahan is the better candidate at 37 and in any other year she wins. No value on either side at current lines though. Whichever side wins the house will also win this race imo

NV-SEN - Put a gun to my head and I like Reid @ 46, but i'm not touching this one with a ten foot pole. Sharron Angle is pretty damn retarded and says pretty damn retarded things. Reid loses to almost ANYONE except her. It's a flip.

NH-SEN - No value in either side @ current prices. Hodes is polling badly so I don't like him @ 25 but no value in Ayotte @ 75 either, if the tide turns even at all Hodes could be right back in this

NY-SENs - Schumer is a lock, Gillibrand is pretty much a lock, very little value but meh maybe on Gillibrand if she gets down to 75

NC-SEN - No value

ND-SEN - R lock, but D is at 3.0, so meh

OH-SEN - Another flip. Don't like either side.

PA-SEN - WTF Sestak is at 36 or 48? Not sure how bidding works Buy Sestak. Now. He's closer to 57-60 imo. Anything below 50 is awesome value.

WI-SEN - Buy Feingold. He's only up 2 in a recent poll, but that's as low as he'll get. The netroots will see him home, he will have infinite monies. Awesome value under 70.

WA-SEN... you know, I don't hate Rossi (R) @ 35. More to hedge than see through, but he could easily get to 50 in a couple months. He's a 40/60 dog imo at the moment. This one is more to hedge because I think it'll become a flip, but Murray (D) wins about 60-65% in the end
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Old Jul 02, 2010, 3:50am   #39
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Races not to touch with a ten foot pole btw since theres no value in either side at the current lines

CO-SEN
NV-SEN
FL-SEN
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Old Jul 08, 2010, 2:53pm   #40
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Whoa. I'm glad someone follows poltics as much as I do. I'm funding my account in a few weeks and I'll post what I'm betting on.
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