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Old Aug 15, 2011, 10:21pm   #501
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I don't think she wins SC. I don't think she wins IA either, but she does over 10% of the time, simply because if Rick Perry doesnt catch fire, she wins the state by default (then it all falls apart for her, but whatever)

And yes, I think the Iowa GOP is crazy enough for her to win IA over 10% of the time. Just to be clear its my 10 to win 100, or my 100 to win 1k etc. You in? How about 20 vs 200?
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Old Aug 15, 2011, 11:38pm   #502
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I don't think she wins SC. I don't think she wins IA either, but she does over 10% of the time, simply because if Rick Perry doesnt catch fire, she wins the state by default (then it all falls apart for her, but whatever)

And yes, I think the Iowa GOP is crazy enough for her to win IA over 10% of the time. Just to be clear its my 10 to win 100, or my 100 to win 1k etc. You in? How about 20 vs 200?

My statement didn't really make sense there so let me clarify.

I meant to say your dreaming if you think I'm giving you 9-1 on her to win Iowa haha. I'm not interested in doing that. I said I'd take 4-1 on her to win Iowa because she has a decent shot at winning it.
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 12:00am   #503
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I think a more fair bet would be like Bachmann vs Perry in Iowa or S.C

Or Bachmann vs Perry vs Other or something like that. Make some offers if you'd like.

Or maybe Romney vs Other in new hampshire. Something to that extent. Simply because I'd rather be making bets as close to 50-50 as possible.
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 7:32am   #504
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I'll take Romney vs Field in NH

Not interested in Bachmann vs Perry in IA thats basically a last longer bet between the equal frontrunner and number 3 candidate

And I only said that because you listed a bunch of candidates for IA that didnt include Bachmann and said 'Other' would be 10% lol

And yes, i've made bets with better equity here at Ptips and got takers (cough, Ozone and Twogun offering me 5-1 on a bet I had over 50% equity in, lol)
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 10:51am   #505
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Someone post the dates of each state's nomination day. I know iowa and NH are first, but a run down would be good for betting purposes.
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 3:01pm   #506
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Basically the three big ones after that are SC, FL and I think NV from memory
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 4:15pm   #507
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Someone post the dates of each state's nomination day. I know iowa and NH are first, but a run down would be good for betting purposes.
I don't think anyone has decided on dates yet. Its supposed to be Iowa in like January. Then it goes NV, SC, NH after that (no idea what the order is). And I also believe Florida is pretty early in their as well.
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 6:25pm   #508
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At this point, if it's really Romney-Perry, then the GOP has two candidates with very different national appeals. Perry is a dog to beat Obama imo, whereas Romney is a favorite (assuming economy doesn't rebound...seems risk is things get worse than better at this point). People will be quick to latch on to someone new, but Perry is going to be viewed as just Bush III.

I think most in the GOP know this, which makes me think Romney will prevail. But I don't ever underestimate the dumb side of the GOP anymore.

Hunstman probably the best candidate for the GOP, but his chances of winning the nomination don't look great.
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Old Aug 16, 2011, 7:20pm   #509
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At this point, if it's really Romney-Perry, then the GOP has two candidates with very different national appeals. Perry is a dog to beat Obama imo, whereas Romney is a favorite (assuming economy doesn't rebound...seems risk is things get worse than better at this point). People will be quick to latch on to someone new, but Perry is going to be viewed as just Bush III.

I think most in the GOP know this, which makes me think Romney will prevail. But I don't ever underestimate the dumb side of the GOP anymore.

Hunstman probably the best candidate for the GOP, but his chances of winning the nomination don't look great.

Yea Huntsman probably has the best shot of beating Obama but he needs something big soon. Id like to make some early state bets if anyone is interested.

Wouldn't mind making a NH bet. Also willing to put more money on Perry as republican nominee
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Old Aug 17, 2011, 5:32am   #510
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Romney is about 40% to beat Obama i'd say. Perry is maybe 25% or slightly worse. All of the other non-Huntsman candidates are drawing dead, and he's drawing dead in the primary.

Overall, Obama's probably just under 70% to get reelected at the moment. Obama is in bad shape, but every opposing candidate who is viable has major flaws atm (Perry is extreme bush, Bachmann is crazy, Romney has no core principles)
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