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Old Aug 17, 2011, 4:54pm   #511
123money321
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Romney is about 40% to beat Obama i'd say. Perry is maybe 25% or slightly worse. All of the other non-Huntsman candidates are drawing dead, and he's drawing dead in the primary.

Overall, Obama's probably just under 70% to get reelected at the moment. Obama is in bad shape, but every opposing candidate who is viable has major flaws atm (Perry is extreme bush, Bachmann is crazy, Romney has no core principles)

I'd take Obama isn't re-elected for 40%. Maybe my 400 vs your 600?

Also wouldn't mind betting on Gary Johnson to drop out of the presidential race by Jan 1st.
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Old Aug 18, 2011, 8:12am   #512
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wtf no stop offering me lines that are worse than intrade lol
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Old Aug 18, 2011, 4:30pm   #513
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wtf no stop offering me lines that are worse than intrade lol
haha Swoop maybe you should take a break from online poker, I think your starting to lose your mind. You always come out with bogus lines giving dems a huge edge, then when I offer a bet significantly better than what you perceive the odds to be you call me nuts. But if Intrade is going to be the benchmark, I'll look their first.
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Old Aug 19, 2011, 3:39am   #514
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Meh I hate betting on primaries.

Also you're not a fish so i'm wasting time trying to get you to take sucker lines.

I actually prob lost a tiny bit of equity to you in the Perry bet; although my gut says i'll be fading it as GWBush and co won't let Perry win the nom since they hate him, plus once his baggage gets out Romney will be much more electable, plus Perry need to win Iowa to have a chance and Iowa people like Bachmann, which scares the R establishment into endorsing Romney after he wins NH
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Old Aug 23, 2011, 4:38am   #515
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Paul Ryan said he's not running. Obviously. Now there's some Pataki buzz but I don't think he runs. I feel like there's still room for another candidate but I don't think anyone else will get in. Christie won't run and I doubt Jeb bush would. I think those are the only two besides Palin who could get in this late.
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Old Aug 23, 2011, 7:37am   #516
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It's either Palin or the field is set imo - with a very small chance of christie/rubio but both are running in 2016 (so is huntsman really with his whole moderate spiel he's hoping the Rs lose big and he can be the one that foretold it)
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Old Aug 23, 2011, 3:00pm   #517
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Huntsman is an odd candidate. Anyone want to bet on his future? Maybe a dropout bet?

Ex Huntsman to drop out of pres race before Dec 31 or Huntsman to run as an independent candidate, etc.
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Old Aug 24, 2011, 8:01pm   #518
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Perry seems to be polling well.
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Old Aug 24, 2011, 9:59pm   #519
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Huntsman is an odd candidate. Anyone want to bet on his future? Maybe a dropout bet?

Ex Huntsman to drop out of pres race before Dec 31 or Huntsman to run as an independent candidate, etc.
When is New Hampshire? If that's after Dec 31 then sure i'll take it at evens, I think Huntsman is staying in to position himself for 2016, so that means he stays in until NH imo and maybe at least SC or FL if he gets 2nd in NH

I think he stays in to beat expectations in NH, then calls it a day if he doesn't finish 2nd to Romney or better.
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Old Aug 24, 2011, 10:00pm   #520
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Perry seems to be polling well.
He is. I'm getting a lot of negative feedback from Is though. Then again they don't decide primaries.

I like Romney over Perry still. I feel like the more people see of Perry the less they'll like him, so he'll appear unelectable which is a problem for him, but then again the Rs nominated Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle so who knows.

I think i'm neutral EV in our 2-1 Perry vs Field bet.

If you want to fade Romney i'll take him over field at 2-1 for the same amount as the perry bet if you like that way if field wins it's a push.
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