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Old Oct 05, 2010, 11:27am   #11
Iestyn75
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Old Oct 05, 2010, 11:50am   #12
Iestyn75
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Way above my level of course, but what if anything can we read into villain 1's check out of turn and quick raise? That he had pre-planned the check-raise against any of the limpers? OOP againt multiple opponents, that's a very strong statement of intent.

What's his and other limpers' best view of you betting knowing that villain had intended to check? You're betting $100 into at least $120, so you can't possibly be stealing this with nothing and five to act. That villain 1 is prepared to pot raise is yet more indication of strength or else is a very bold move to steal but (hey what do I know?) the latter doesn't look +ev to me

But it's villain 2 which confuses me. He's being asked for 450 to win 670 and you still to act, but it's not a board on which he ought to be slow playing. This is particularly so against the blinds who got into the pot cheaply and could be holding anything, including fast-played straights charging the flush draw and sets the premium.

At the end of the day, exactly what do you complete with A2o to see?

Did some quick calculations with Texas Holdem Calculator based on (what might be) worst case scenario:

Board: 3h4h5s

You: Ac2h - win 25.58% tie 1.99%
Villain 1: 5h5d - win 35.66% tie 1.99%
Villain 2: Ah6h - win 36.77% tie 1.99%

If villain 2 is on the flush draw w/o straight draw it changes somewhat

You: Ac2h - win 32.23% tie 9.63%
Villain 1: 5h5d - win 35.77% tie 2.66%
Villain 2: Ah9h - win 22.37% tie 9.63%

Obv. you're dead to 67 and it seems to me that you're only a significant favourite if you've been lucky enough to run into two players who have flopped sets.

But.... you'll win the slightly less than 1 in 3 if they both play; if they are holding as above, you're at least a 55/35 fav (10% tie) against either heads up.

A shove which gets a call from both is -ev but I think on balance getting either or both to lay down (not to mention calling with (eg) overpairs which I haven't even factored) is almost a counter balance to this probability.

On balance, I shove and pray because 345 is what I played A2o to see. The set calls every time, the flush calls perhaps..
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Old Oct 05, 2010, 2:55pm   #13
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a shove looks weaker, no?

Kc

i am not sure a shove looks weaker

@ joey how many higher games were spread at this casino?
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Old Oct 05, 2010, 10:32pm   #14
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Friday night they had one 25/50 max buy in 10k, and one 10/20 max buy in 3k
Apparently it was the first time in more than a year 25/50 ran. It was a great game with one guy losing >35k on massive tilt. I did okay for about a 4k win that night depsite losing a 20k pot.

Saturday afternoon started with a 10/20, they attempted to run 25/50 again but it ended up 10/25 (max buy 5k). I just stayed at the 10/20 that day.

This is at Fallsview in Niagara Falls. At least one 10/20 or 10/25 runs on the weekends, usually two 5/10's every day.



As for the hand not sure I like going with it on the flop for 200BB. I think the premature ck by villian does allow us to take most two pairs out of his range which he probably bets out.

Against a getting in range of straights, sets and combo draws we fair quite bad when all combos of straights are possible and I doubt he ever goes with worse.

We pretty much have Villian2 beat, he doesnt have 67o and I would assume usually would just three beat the 67s combo's he has. So his range is something like sets, good draws (he doesnt have like ) and maybe 54s.

So I didnt want to raise get it in against Villian1. I didnt want call allowing both villians to realize their equity and risk a potential ck through on a blank turn as I probably have about 30% equity three way. Raise/folding obviously blows. So that left just mucking.
Flame away
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Old Oct 05, 2010, 11:22pm   #15
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As for the hand not sure I like going with it on the flop for 200BB. I think the premature ck by villian does allow us to take most two pairs out of his range which he probably bets out.
really?

he was apparently looking to checkraise, and two pair is the classic checkraising hand. then the question is why is he raising? does he raise with the nuts and shut the other 4 guys out of the hand?

Quote:
So that left just mucking.
that has to be -EV...what are the respective villains' exact ranges before your action, and what do you expect them to call a shove with?

Kc
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Old Oct 05, 2010, 11:24pm   #16
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I thought about folding all the way but could not expect anyone will take it seriously...

BTW I hope you will tell us how the hand went on turn/river.

Also, with all that description you gave to V1 I don't see why it's not possible he has two pair, or even bluffing? I probably agree he could have any straight and go for a check-raise, but then you bet and he decided that's enough money to trap and raised. But he did it quickly, so I just think it's kinda suspicious for a nut hand.

And it appears if V2 had a 67 then it's a mistake for him to ever flat rather than 3bet?

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Old Oct 05, 2010, 11:55pm   #17
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And it appears if V2 had a 67 then it's a mistake for him to ever flat rather than 3bet?
he tanked.

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Old Oct 06, 2010, 12:34am   #18
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really?

that has to be -EV...what are the respective villain's exact ranges before your action, and what do you expect them to call a shove with?

Kc
Allright I will try the math...


Villian1 range:

55,44,33: 9 combos
54,53: 8
67: 16
62: 8
A2: 4
6hxh :8
7hxh :7
Ah5h,Ah8h,Ah9h,AhTh
20 combo's of random flush draws or random 6's or something retarded that he will fold

84 combos

Villian2 range:
55,44,33: 9
5d4d, 5c4c
5h6h,6h7h,6h8h
Ah5h,Ah6h,Ah7h,Ah8h,Ah9h,AhTh
7h8h,7h9h

22 combos

If I shove Villain1 calls with:
55,44,33: 9
67: 16
62: 8
A2: 4
6hxh :8
Ah7h

46 of 84 combos

If Villian1 calls Villian2 calls with 55,44,Ah6h,6h7h,Ah7h

9 of 22 combos

If Villian1 folds Villian2 calls with
55,44,33,Ah6h,6h7h,5h6h,6h8h,Ah7h

11 of 22 combos

Equity HU with Villian1 = 29.17%
Equity HU with Villian2 = 55.07%
Equity 3way = 17.56%


1.Both fold 38/84*11/22 =22.6%

2.Both call 46/84*9/22 = 22.4%

3.Villain1 calls Villain2 folds 46/84*13/22 = 32.4%

4.Villain1 folds Villain2 Calls 38/84*11/22= 22.6%


$1120 In the pot

1. Win $1120

2. $12060*.1756+$2000*.5507=$3219 Lose $1781

3. $8510*.2917=$2482 Lose $1517

4. $10510*.5507=$5788 Win $788

Total 1120*.226-1781*.224-1517*.324+788*.226= -$459

vs losing $110 by folding.



See a safe turn then deciding might be a good plan.
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Old Oct 06, 2010, 12:48am   #19
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Basically all that math was a waste of my time, because its close enough that small differences in the ranges will make it swing the other way.

If they shows up with two pair a little more then I assigned or and if flats some straights to my flop lead it will clearly make it a shove.

I think he does usually raise all straights but your right he might call and invite the other players in.
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Old Oct 06, 2010, 12:56am   #20
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. So that left just mucking.




i played in the American version of this came quiet often (the 10/20 game at Seneca Niagara). unless the game changes alot in that mile or two* this is not a muck. vil 2 is not coming along often here vil one has a ton of 2 pair sets combo draw (not just straight + flush but also pair plus flush) hands.

raise > shove > call > fold imo (hmmm could be convinced to shove > raise)

you are not really that deep 300 BB and can buy back in for 150BB


* imo this game should be weaker then the US one as 10/20 is as high as it goes in New York and the buy in is unlimited where this is capped

edit: if the game is weaker it may make fold a bit better as the weaker the game the less important pushing small edges becomes vs keeping your stake deep intact. i will have to think if this changes it enough to make it a fold my 1st reaction is still no......
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

Kc

Last edited by acehole_76; Oct 06, 2010 at 1:09am.
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