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Old Nov 14, 2010, 9:02pm   #11
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you are focusing on the wrong things for sure. red line lol. its natural to go down, red lines of all players dont sum to zero.

what site are you playing at? what samples are we talking about? do you get rakeback? it's very tough to beat nl200+ on stars/tilt these days for more than 3bb, and at that rate, 100k hands breakeven is pretty standard.
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Old Nov 14, 2010, 11:04pm   #12
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Full Tilt, with the usual 27% rakeback (plus stuff like the year-end bonus, and stuff associated with Full Tilt "points", which might bring the total up to 30% or so).

The numbers I've been posting are just from the last few months, after I quit playing 2/4 and focused exclusively on 1/2, but the numbers and the slope of the red line aren't really different when I check much larger samples (e.g. the 665K hands I see when I filter for the last 24 months, and only NL with 3-6 players).

I don't think I'm focusing on the wrong things. This just happens to be a thread about the third most important thing right now, after my concentration issues and my tilt issues. (I would also mention my problems with the blinds, but I think that's actually the same problem as the red line problem). I'm working on those too. It seems to help a lot to analyze a few hands from the previous session before I start a new one, so I think I'm going to make a habit of that.

I would agree that it's natural for red lines to go down. I don't even see how it's possible for a red line to go up. But many very successful players have positive red lines, e.g. Boywonder and Leatherass. I've seen Boywonder's graphs, and a post where he said that he started working on how to get his red line up after seeing it going up in Leatherass's graph. (Hm, maybe I shouldn't use the phrase "going up in" just before a name that ends with "ass"). I even found a post in another forum where it was claimed that one of the members there (a professional player) was consistently winning with a negative blue line!

Boywonder's graph is proof that it's possible for red lines to go up consistently. What I don't know is if it's possible to have it go down at a rate of almost 10 bb/100 and still be a winning player. If only 1 hand in 35-40 go to showdown, and the graph of the results from those hands is falling rapidly, then I have to win absurd amounts of money in the roughly 2.5% of hands that do go to showdown for the green line to go up.

Last edited by Fredrik; Nov 14, 2010 at 11:36pm.
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 1:16am   #13
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By the way, when I was actively trying to do something about my red line, it just made me play worse, especially on the river. I would e.g. call a third barrel too often because it was in the back of my mind that calling twice and then folding is poison for the red line. I would also be too aggressive on the river (bluff-raise too often, value bet too thin etc.). So now I try not to think about it while I'm playing.
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 7:28am   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokertableratings

Top Full tilt winners this year

…..........................................Amount. ..........hands....BB/100
1. U2KILLERS.........................$88,068.......57 2,347.. ..3.85
2. Tweelingen..........................$83,045....... 600,873...3.46
3. GayGambla …......................$75,491........723,693...2. 61
4. TOAFK................................$61,101...... ..762,735...2
5. emilyRan............................$56,775....... .871,568...1.63
6. pwnchizzle ….......................$55,580........494,495...2 .81
7. flyingshark …......................$53,381........354,297...3. 77
8. Luigi9887...........................$50,209....... .373,471...3.36
9. kiwitintin...........................$49,996...... ..612,460...2.04
10. bannar ….........................$44,976........447,548.. .2.51
11. PolamaluFan83 …..............$42,651........382,763...2.79
12. snackking ….....................$41,884........400,416...2.6 2
13. kin575............................$41,411........5 05,035...2.05
14. youknownot....................$41,127........332,8 53...3.09
15. i like boomboomFull........$39,542........281,304...3.51
16. maurrrr81.....................$39,290........273,2 17...3.6
17. jballer88.......................$37,791........463 ,614...2.04
18. Renoma.......................$36,910........516,60 5...1.79
19. hiosilverr.....................$35,632........294, 218...3.03
20. LzyScmbg....................$35,630........298,885 ...2.98
21. MystersY.....................$35,282........290,14 5...3.04
22. bmb013.....................$35,096........253,394. ..3.46
23. aintnobodyrilla............$34,580........182,570. ..4.74
24. scurrrd......................$33,968........335,25 3...2.53
25. HolyPoker.................$33,662........356,496.. .2.36
26. Peter Stevens...........$33,483........74,700...11.21
27. BEAR JEWW.............$32,427........167,002...4.85
28. shaq1337................$32,255........171,428...4 .7
29. dizzyphantom..........$31,889........99,355.....8. 02
30. ImScurred..............$31,668........247,134...3. 2
31. Hakimakli...............$31,625........298,982...2 .64
32. Instinkt83..............$31,400........323,400...2 .43
33. ProfesserK.............$31,347........50,858....15 .41
34. Damn Ringer.........$30,749........237,973...3.23
35. TeeJayOrTj...........$30,666........105,730...7.25
36. joepoker77...........$30,107........579,130...1.3
37. tehdrunky............$29,961........281,848...2.66
38. Eduts..................$29,573........216,039...3. 42
39. Lridge.................$28,455........152,905...4. 65
40. koToI7ec.............$28,269........100,981...7
41. daluno................$28,155........128,388...5.4 8
42. TwoGun1............$28,032........407,760...1.72
43. The Good Life11..$27,896........318,065...2.19
44. pokerspade........$27,722........70,012.....9.9
45. g1212...............$27,627........112,855...6.12
46. ubetchaimafish..$26,944........52,567.....12.81
47. wackee............$26,872........227,817...2.95
48. suitedaces1012.$26,858........317,682...2.11
49. chaosdamage.....$26,605........138,969...4.79
50. Bobicc...............$26,399........54,485....12.1 1
also check your expected variance here http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Poker stars results are normally much worse. Does anyone know if TwoGun1 is our Two gun?
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Why do people keep typing "GG" when I go AI in the short stack with 72o?

Last edited by Snaggle; Nov 16, 2010 at 1:34am.
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 7:48am   #15
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I'm pretty sure it is. Not 100% sure though. I just got some serious deja vu when I saw that list about a week ago, and felt that he must have posted that name here years ago. I have never seen him at the tables, so he must be playing 9-max.

By the way, for your amusement, these are my notes on the guy at the top (translated from Swedish and with the boring bits left out): (I think I made all of these notes except the one mentioning PTR before I saw his PTR graph. I think it's kind of funny that I thought he was a big fish until I looked him up just to verify it).

Calling station!! WTF...his PTR graph is a straight line up to 152K!!!!
Calls with any pair in position on the flop. Calls strong turn bets with draws.
Called raises with: J8s btn. 95s bb. 97s btn. 86s btn (big raise on 883 flop).
Calls cbets with absolutely nothing. A5s (KTx).
Called cbet made against two people with shit pair, shit kicker and backdoor flush draw. Bluff raise all-in on the turn in a spot where my range is very strong.

Edit: I tried the variance simulator. That's some scary stuff. If my win rate is as low as 3 bb/100 (and it probably has been, considering my tilt and concentration issues), I should expect a 100K breakeven stretch in every 1M hands, and maybe more than 200K hands breakeven. Downswings of 30+ BI are also totally standard.

Last edited by Fredrik; Nov 15, 2010 at 8:01am.
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Old Nov 16, 2010, 1:37am   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frederik
I tried the variance simulator. That's some scary stuff. If my win rate is as low as 3 bb/100 (and it probably has been, considering my tilt and concentration issues), I should expect a 100K breakeven stretch in every 1M hands, and maybe more than 200K hands breakeven. Downswings of 30+ BI are also totally standard.
This is standard now-lol, I remember when I thought 100,000 hands was a large number and 5,000 an OK sample.
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Old Nov 17, 2010, 10:36pm   #17
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Good luck I hope you manage to turn the line around enough to start winning consistently.

I find I have a similar problem in .5/1 and 1/2 PLO cash games where I break even after rake nomatter what I do (laggy vs nutpeddling etc). That said my sample is under 100k hands and it's completely meaningless in the grand scheme I could be -2bb/100 or +5bb/100 and id never know due to the regular 1000bb+ swings
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Old Nov 18, 2010, 9:18pm   #18
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Is that list just 1/2 ?? Pretty big wake up call as to how much tougher the games are.

Also I'd be surprised if that was 'our' twogun. Just feel like hes too baller to grind out 1/2.
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"lucky in love, unlucky at cards", you must have bought yourself a fuck by now.
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Old Nov 18, 2010, 10:46pm   #19
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If you can grind 1/2 and win at a nice winrate playing mass tables that is pretty balla imo
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Old Nov 18, 2010, 11:14pm   #20
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Is that list just 1/2 ?? Pretty big wake up call as to how much tougher the games are.

Also I'd be surprised if that was 'our' twogun. Just feel like hes too baller to grind out 1/2.
yes, all are $200 NL.
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