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Old Nov 14, 2010, 10:03pm   #11
BubbleBoy
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120k hands? stopped reading there.
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 12:04am   #12
Fredrik
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Originally Posted by BubbleBoy View Post
120k hands? stopped reading there.
I just set the filter to "last 24 months, 1/2 NL, 2/4 NL, 3/6 NL, more than 2 players". That gives me essentially the same win rates by position over a sample of 665K hands. A little higher utg+1 and significantly lower btn*, but pretty much the same in the blinds. -21 bb/100 in the sb and -40 bb/100 in the bb. The total win rate is at 2.2 bb/100 over that sample.

*) I think I have significantly improved the way I play from the button this year, so this is expected.

It's true that 120K isn't much of a sample for reliable win rates, especially for specific positions. Yesterday I was trying a bunch of different filters in Hold'em Manager to see if I could find out why my win rate utg+1 was so much worse than utg, and I concluded that it's mainly a sample size problem. I've been running good with big hands in reraised pots utg and horrible utg+1.

Last edited by Fredrik; Nov 15, 2010 at 12:10am.
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 12:34am   #13
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i think creating an image to where your c/r'ing a lot of flops can be good because we can start getting some light calls with our KQ's on Q74r type boards etc.
This sounds good, but if we C/R a lot of flops, I'm worried that there will be too many bluffs in our ranges. So maybe this strategy should mainly be used against people who fold to so many reraises that it makes sense to cold-call a lot with our big hands preflop. Against such people, I think our reraise ranges should contain a lot of suited ace hands (mainly because of the ace blocker), and not so many huge pairs. (This is only until they adjust of course).

Against people who call a lot of reraises, I think I want to reraise KQ and play any top pair on the flop all-in. I expect this type of player to call a cbet on a on a KJx flop with stuff like QJs. I also expect them to fold on a lot of flops that they've missed completely. Since AK is 4-bet so often these days, I don't think we have to worry about being dominated when we have KQ. The situation is considerably worse with KJ, but I think I still want to play that the same way (against players who call reraises).


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Originally Posted by Red4Eva View Post
Fredrik, you also say donk bets get too many folds. I've been experimenting with pretty much donking anytime I have two overs and some decent backdoor equity. I get a lot of folds on the flop and if I pick up any equity on the turn, fd, gutshot, etc (QT on 7928 etc) donk again and it seems to be working decently well.
This is an interesting idea. I've been thinking that spots like that should be good for donkbet-bluffs, but I haven't tried it much.
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