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Old Nov 29, 2010, 10:45am   #1
podbelski
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Default KQ/KJ in the blinds vs late position steal

Hey guys,

I realise the hands I want to discuss are a sort of gray area for me. Everytime I'm still uncertain of how to play them. I mean, there are reasons to both 3bet it or flat, and it seems I do both without much understanding of the outcome.

If the BB is a fish I like flatting in the SB to let him join the pot. If the BB is 3bet-happy I'm 3betting myself or folding. Suited hands usually make me eager to flat and see a flop. But what should I look for regarding the original raiser to make my decision?

Consider the 100bb case with another blind playing nitty and straightforward.

Last edited by podbelski; Nov 29, 2010 at 10:47am.
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Old Nov 30, 2010, 10:45pm   #2
Fredrik
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If he calls a lot of 3-bets and doesn't 4-bet too much, reraise. (These guys will call your first continuation bet at least, with middle pair or a medium pocket pair. Often fire two barrels when you miss, and play your top pair hands all-in).
If he 4-bets a lot, just call.
If his fold to reraise percentage is really high (say 85%), you can make a case for both options. I think you're probably better off reraising until he adjusts. KQo isn't so strong that you should feel that you're missing a chance to get value if he folds.

The BB would have to be absurdly bad for me to want him in the pot. Most good flops for you give you a one-pair hand OOP against two players. That's not a great spot, even if the BB is a moron. If he e.g. pots at least two streets every hand, then it's a different story of course.
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Old Dec 01, 2010, 12:13pm   #3
podbelski
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good thoughts thanks Eric... ugh I mean, Fredrik!

I'm trying to imagine another question that your reply does not cover in some way... say you played with the villain for about 100 hands, do you have any "borderlines" for his PFR/Steal stats that you can rely upon to make a decision to 3bet/flat or even fold?

Last edited by podbelski; Dec 01, 2010 at 12:15pm.
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Old Dec 02, 2010, 12:51pm   #4
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It's always hard to know where to draw the line. After 100 hands, the stats aren't reliable, and we should be less willing to trust them in situations where trusting them and being wrong will cost us more than we expect to make when we're right.

I think a fold to reraise percentage of about 65 should be considered high. That's the percentage that makes it profitable to reraise 100% of your range from the bb. The problem is of course that he might fold less frequently on the button. He almost certainly does if he's opening smaller than 3 bb. Also, if he opens a lot more hands on the button than he does in other positions, he may have to fold to a reraise almost as frequently as in early position. So the stat should be closer to the truth in those cases. If he opens a tight range on the button, I don't think he's folding nearly as often as his fold to reraise percentage is suggesting.
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