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Old Dec 03, 2010, 11:36am   #1
Fredrik
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Default Weird 88 hand.

It looks like it may take two weeks to get the money I'm withdrawing from my savings. I won't be able to start playing "for real" until then, so I figured I might as well play a 3-table 0.5/1 session with the 350 in my account. I ended up a little bit ahead for the session. This hand occurred pretty early. No information at all on the opponent.


Hero ($105)
BB ($100)
UTG ($109)
CO ($228 )
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero

fold, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($10)

Hero checks, CO bets $9, BTN folds, Hero calls $9

This call doesn't make much sense to me. I'm really just doing it because I've been seeing similar calls in the videos I've been watching, and I'm thinking that this is a good time to experiment with things I wouldn't normally do. I don't like it because even though I'm probably ahead of the villain's range right now, a random turn card is going to put me behind it. I also think it's a decent 3-barrel board for my opponent, since he would expect me to call once or twice and then fold with a lot of my range, and to raise before the river with a set.

TURN ($28 )

Hero checks, CO checks

OK, so the turn is a blank, and he checks behind. But what if he bets? I would have to fold right? The stacks seem all wrong for a C/R bluff. If I have to fold to a second barrel on a blank turn, shouldn't I just fold the flop?

RIVER ($28 )

Hero checks, CO bets $19,

When he checked behind on the turn, I figured he often has overcards or a small pair with a gutshot. When he bet the river, I figured he often has a T, because the other overcard hands will often give up, and the small pair hands will often check behind. So I was thinking that a call would be marginally losing, and that a raise might be marginally winning, since I expect him to fold a T most of the time. I thought for a while, and decided to try the weird C/R bluff.

Hero raises to $70,

This decision was more influenced by the things I said when I commented the flop call, than by my thoughts on the opponent's range. This is a good time for me to experiment with weird lines, and I don't think the flop call is profitable unless we often turn the hand into a bluff. When do we do that, if not here? I guess the obvious answer is "when the river is a third h", but aren't the straight and two pair possibilities scary enough? (I'm folding 87s preflop, but the villain doesn't know that).

Last edited by Fredrik; Dec 03, 2010 at 2:30pm.
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Old Dec 03, 2010, 12:59pm   #2
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I can't give too much of an advice, but like to participate in the discussion.

First, I see it's a decent spot to lead out. It has drawbacks but the main goodness comes from the CO has to play straightforward with a player left to act, and you easily having huge combos or sets going to bet-3bet all-in. Taking it down on the flop is a nice result IMO.

As played, it's great if you have decent handsample on the CO and can rely upon his barreling stats. If he's the type who has no problems with pressure I think I'm folding to his lead into 2 people in that spot. If he's not barreling too much then I like check-call/check-fold the turn line.

On the river, it really looks like he's going for a thin value having Tx pair at best. The problem is I'm not sure how credibly you are repping the nuts given you didn't raised a smwt drawy board when the OR shown strength and a flushdraw missed.
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Old Dec 04, 2010, 10:06am   #3
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So sad this great forum pays so little attention to cashgames... I almost want to start play tourneys, guys I've crushed a bunch of 1$ 6max SnG superturbos yesterday!
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Old Dec 04, 2010, 2:11pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by podbelski View Post
So sad this great forum pays so little attention to cashgames...
Yes, I haven't exactly been overwhelmed by the number of answers and the depth of the analyses But it's OK. I still appreciate the answers I got. Maybe I'll try a forum at one of the video sites next time.
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 2:03am   #5
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It really does not matter how this hand turned out. The river is the worse place of all to try a bluff! It is easy to calculate exactly what one has at stake for a call whether hero or calling station. A bluff has to be sold with at least two streets of betting. If one is not bluffing to call with 88 here one needs the certain observation that they c-bet with air most of the time or that they'll bet their draws. The turn is the proper place to initiate a float, not the river. Draws give up most of the time to a check raise or one's betting out, while a hand that just calls is weak and will have a hard time calling a river bet most of the time even just a half pot one or third pot one as they scream value bet. One also needs to have observed whether they'll hero call small river c-bet but not river shoves.
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 9:03am   #6
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Snaggle, do you mean on the turn hero has mostly two options: check-folding and check-raising (to fire any river)?
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 1:15pm   #7
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I think the most interesting street is the flop. I think calling without a plan is losing, so what I'd really like to know is if there's a plan that makes a call profitable.

But let's continue talking about the river bluff. I've been assuming that I can't call his bet. I need to be good 29% of the time for a call to be profitable, so if my assumption is correct, at least 71% of his betting range has me beat. Let's say that I'm beat by 80% of his betting range. I need him to fold 60% of the time for a bluff to be profitable. He's obviously folding the 20% of his range that (I'm assuming) consists of bluffs, so I need him to fold another 40% of his range. (That's 50% of his value range). I think his value range consists of a lot of Tx hands, since sets, overpairs and 43 (turned straight) bet the turn most of the time. 9x is out, since he would either have bet the turn or checked behind on the river. He might have rivered a straight with 87, but I think 87 bets the turn some of the time, so we can remove a few 87 hands from his range. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that 80% of his value range consists of Tx hands, and if that's the case, I only need him to fold 3/8 of his Tx hands for a raise to be profitable.

I'm still not sure, but I'm leaning towards a raise being slightly profitable and a call slightly losing.
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 1:42pm   #8
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Don't you think leading the flop is better than blindly check-calling/check-folding the turn?
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 10:50pm   #9
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I don't like a lead on the flop here. Most of the time we're bluffing with 2 outs against two people who can find plenty of reasons to call.
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Old Dec 05, 2010, 10:52pm   #10
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snaggle, what stakes do u play?
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