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Old Dec 06, 2010, 2:15pm   #1
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Default Facing unusual river shove in 50NL rush

What's weird is that he checked the BB so while AJ and KQss and TT etc are surely in his range, but he has to be raising those hands some of the time in a limped pot even OOP

Yes, I realise my turn check is unusual here (along with limping behind I guess) and it's probably a mistake both preflop and on the turn but what I want to discuss here is the river as played (i'm mostly playing 50NL rush to work on my deepstacked postflop game not for an hourly rate so im playing looser than normal pre obv).

In any case, perfect river hits and... villain shoves over 10x pot?

No reads on villain since it's rush so its impossible to know whether hes spewy/bad or only shoving some sort of supernuts here.

Who makes the call and who folds? I'd imagine he has AJ/KQss/TT maybe 10-20% of the time, a jack maybe 75-80% and something else/misclick/spazzing maybe 5%? Is that way off?

Full Tilt Poker Game #26166765678: Table Mercury - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 09:08:17 ET - 2010/12/06
Seat 1: Test81 ($50)
Seat 2: Lets Race ($53.45)
Seat 3: MikeMiggen ($60.10)
Seat 4: SwoopAE ($92.95)
Seat 5: MAGICRAISE87 ($57.10)
Seat 6: melliju ($48.55)
Seat 7: drtydaydream ($44.80)
Seat 8: RbtG ($60.25)
Seat 9: xnightmare3 ($55.60)
Test81 posts the small blind of $0.25
Lets Race posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SwoopAE [8h Jh]
MikeMiggen calls $0.50
SwoopAE has 8 seconds left to act
SwoopAE calls $0.50
MAGICRAISE87 folds
melliju folds
drtydaydream folds
RbtG folds
xnightmare3 folds
Test81 folds
Lets Race checks
*** FLOP *** [Jd Ts Js]
Lets Race checks
MikeMiggen checks
SwoopAE bets $1
Lets Race calls $1
MikeMiggen calls $1
*** TURN *** [Jd Ts Js] [As]
Lets Race checks
MikeMiggen checks
SwoopAE checks
*** RIVER *** [Jd Ts Js As] [Th]
Lets Race bets $51.95, and is all in
MikeMiggen folds
SwoopAE has 15 seconds left to act
SwoopAE has requested TIME
SwoopAE has timed out
SwoopAE folds
Uncalled bet of $51.95 returned to Lets Race
Lets Race mucks
Lets Race wins the pot ($4.55)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4.75 | Rake $0.20
Board: [Jd Ts Js As Th]
Seat 1: Test81 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Lets Race (big blind) collected ($4.55), mucked
Seat 3: MikeMiggen folded on the River
Seat 4: SwoopAE folded on the River
Seat 5: MAGICRAISE87 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: melliju didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: drtydaydream didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: RbtG didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: xnightmare3 (button) didn't bet (folded)
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Last edited by SwoopAE; Dec 06, 2010 at 2:18pm.
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Old Dec 06, 2010, 2:48pm   #2
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What a mess

Mostly looks like a J for a split or better, unless he's dumb to value bet Tx or KQ or flush... So this sucks but I don't like to call here
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Old Dec 06, 2010, 2:57pm   #3
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LOL, perfect example of why I refuse to play RUSH, here I'd probably call.

Of course you bet the hand you have a lot better understanding of where you are. As played you are supposed to fold of course.
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Old Dec 06, 2010, 3:19pm   #4
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Let's pretend for a second I bet $3 on the turn and he calls, then he openshoves river.

What do we do in that situation?

How often do we think his shove is a misclick or spazz out with a hand weaker than a jack? It's basically all about whether thats more or less often than he has AJ/TT/KQss since i'm being laid only about 1.1-1 to call or whatever it is.

This really doesnt happen that often and the situation is made a lot worse by my unusual turn check.
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Old Dec 06, 2010, 5:57pm   #5
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With that turn action we still have to fold. I think we have to fold here unless we bet the flop and turn. If we bet those streets, depending on the action, we can get into a situation where it makes some sense for him to try and steal the pot. There isn't enough in the pot with just a weak turn bet to justify a steal. Therefore he is either spazzing or misclicking or is trying to exploit a jack or ten in your hand.

I think he will be doing the latter too often for us to make a profitable call.
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Old Dec 06, 2010, 7:15pm   #6
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The interesting thing here is that even if you're 95% sure it's a split pot on the river, a fold might still be the right play because after rake you might wind up getting back less than if you just fold lol. You would be calling to split the $4.75 that's in the pot ($2.37 each), but if you call, you're paying like ~$1.25ish in rake. So yea, I mean if you're positive it's a split pot, you should still call, but it's amusing how close it is. With that in mind, he only needs to be beating you a very small percentage of the time proportionate to how often you're beating him for this to be a fold, so I think I like your fold.
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Old Dec 12, 2010, 11:55pm   #7
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fine, AA AJ TT is too much

unless he is retarded then snap call of course
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