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Old Mar 12, 2011, 7:44pm   #1
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Default Betting on Isildur Challenge vs Negreanu

Does anyone else see value in Negreanu against Isildur at +155? I'm pretty sure i'd take myself at +155 against Isildur over 5k hands. 20k+ would be a different story but surely Negreanu is 40%+ to win here right over such a small sample - five big coolers will make most of the difference one way or the other.

Am I seeing value where none exists? I'd imagine Negreanu is 45% or so to win here making +155 solid value right? Is Daniel's HU game really that bad?
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Old Mar 12, 2011, 8:18pm   #2
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need more info. stack sizes, game, number of tables, number of sessions.

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Old Mar 12, 2011, 9:13pm   #3
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2+2 is hilarious.

this is one of those enduring myths, that you're never worse than 6/4 because you can shove every hand and blah blah blah. if anyone has actually done some math on this since the internet kids and their computers came along i'd like to see it. i'd also like to know what effect playing four tables has on that strategy.

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I'm pretty sure i'd take myself at +155 against Isildur
that's so fucking hilarious it actually goes all the way past tragically pathetic and back to fucking hilarious again. we aren't talking about fighting sylvester stallone here.

Quote:
but surely Negreanu is 40%+ to win here right over such a small sample - five big coolers will make most of the difference one way or the other.
the impact of coolers increases with reduced sample size, but i don't think they're going to be the decider per se. daniel has significantly greater capacity to err than blom.

Quote:
Am I seeing value where none exists?
definitely. daniel is not going to play the "optimum" blindshove strategy, he's going to play poker with blom, and he is going to be outclassed.

actually he's going to four table internet nlhe with blom. if they played poker daniel would probably be in great shape, but they aren't.

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Is Daniel's HU game really that bad?
no, but blom's is very good.

hmm...the killcrazy challenge...

hmm...

Kc
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Old Mar 13, 2011, 11:36am   #4
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Fair enough. Thought it was interesting. 5k hands is only one long or two short sessions...
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Old Mar 14, 2011, 6:28pm   #5
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I'll give you +175, Swoop.
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Old Mar 14, 2011, 7:06pm   #6
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what price on blom winning both sessions?

what price on negreanu winning both sessions?

prices for 1 each and winner?

Kc
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Old Mar 14, 2011, 7:35pm   #7
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
hmm...the killcrazy challenge...

hmm...

Kc

wasnt this already done and the winner was acehole
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Old Mar 14, 2011, 9:19pm   #8
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wasnt this already done and the winner was acehole
i thought i'd remember if we 4 tabled 50k hands of lhe heads up...strange.

Kc
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Old Mar 14, 2011, 9:35pm   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
i thought i'd remember if we 4 tabled 50k hands of lhe heads up...strange.

Kc

well you have alot on your plate you most likely forgot
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obviously, it's always my fault whenever anyone does anything stupid around here.

fucking morons every one of you. there isn't a man in this village that i wouldn't feed into an incinerator for no reason other than to get rid of them.

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Old Mar 14, 2011, 9:42pm   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozone View Post
I'll give you +175, Swoop.
I'll take a look over the rules of the challenge and consider it. I realise Negreanu is a dog its just about how much variance is in the challenge. Min/max bet?
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