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Old Mar 24, 2011, 5:46pm   #1
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Default WSOP ME: what markup should i sell at?

So i'm going to play the WSOP ME this year and probably sell around 50-60% or so on 2+2 (and here if anyone wants some shares; i'll do it at smaller markup to anyone i'm friends with)

Question is, what markup do you think is reasonable for my investors, will maximise value for me while still being a solid deal for them and selling without any problems?

Interested in hearing what people have to say about it. I've often sold my packages at 1.05 or so here with decent results (I think 4 of my 7 packages have been profitable from memory). I'm a dual aus/us citizen, will play on US passport so no tax witholding.

I have references both here and on 2+2 so that shouldnt be a problem.

Some of my live results (not all of them are tracked)

10k history - played AM main event in 2008 and 2010; bubbled (KK<set 35bb eff and then AQ<66 for last 10bb) in 08 and busted late on day 2 in '10 due to being card dead and then reshoving and losing a 40/60.

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=163837
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=103999

Online MTT results

http://officialpokerrankings.com/ful...4F2CB.html?t=2

Breakeven at stars over much smaller sample; +15k or so on UB from ages back over small sample, probably +1-2k on cake and other minor networks that i've dabbled on

What i'm after more than anything is some independent analysis of what i'm worth in the WSOP ME. I may also include the WSOP 1500 and 2500 PLO to add some value for investors but will probably sell a small share of those seperately if I sell any action at all in them.

I've been told 1.1, 1.15, 1.2 and 1.25 by various sources; i'm thinking 1.15 is fair, huge value for investors in such a soft tourney; maybe i'm selling myself short and I should try to sell at 1.2? I'm really not sure. Obviously i'll sell at 1.1 or so to friends but that'll be arranged privately; i'll probably sell half publicly, then sell small pieces privately and then have the rest myself.

Worth noting is that 1.04-1.05 or so is probably the breakeven point for me since i'll have to exchange 10k AUD into USD so i'm not really charging markup up to that point and profiting from it. I'll probably have about 30% of my own action.

If anyone who doesn't know me well (some germans maybe if BB or Garso could ask them?) could comment that'd be great since a lot of the people i'm selling to will consider me a random but with good references. It'll be the first time i've publicly sold action on a 10k event (did it privately for AM in '10 mostly to one guy, and had 100% of myself in 08 as I satellited in)
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 11:51am   #2
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I know this isn't very threadworthy but any chance a few of you who buy action from players regularly could give me an estimate of what i'm worth roughly?

I'm guessing 1.15-1.2 from the 2+2 posts but I want to know if that seems too high for a player with my record/qualifications. I see people selling at 1.25 and stuff that i'm better than so surely not i'd imagine?
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 5:43pm   #3
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whats to stop you from trying to sell at 1.25, and if you don't get action, reducing the price?

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Old Mar 25, 2011, 7:32pm   #4
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Originally Posted by killcrazy View Post
whats to stop you from trying to sell at 1.25, and if you don't get action, reducing the price?

Kc

this
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 9:34pm   #5
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I think 1.25 is on the low side.
I would sell myself not under 1.4
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Old Mar 25, 2011, 9:41pm   #6
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I was going to say 1.20, so +/- .05 wouldn't be unreasonable.

Keep in mind that this is a single event, and there's no stakeback/re-payment etc. That's why I wouldn't go with 1.4 (the only other number suggested so far). If it was a series of events and/or there was some kind of carry-over or possible repayment, then it might make sense.

Then again, Skeptix's 'stakeback' balance is like negative eleventy billion here, which might be why he disappeared.
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Old Mar 26, 2011, 5:30am   #7
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I guess I just feel guilty selling shares where while i'm still +EV at that price i'm not as hugely +EV

As soft as I imagine the WSOP ME is (Aussie Millions Main is super soft and WSOP ME surely has to be softer) selling at 1.4 just seems exploitative of stakers since i can just freeroll for a huge % of myself putting nothing at stake. I dunno, maybe i'm being stupid about this but i'd never want to buy shares in someone who didnt have a decent chunk of their own money at stake so I feel like it should be the same for me. After reading responses maybe i'll just sell at 1.25 if everyone thinks it'll sell easily? I'll wait and see what similar OPR% players put their packages up at I guess. Definitely going to play the main this year though for the first time.
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Old Mar 27, 2011, 5:56am   #8
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WSOP ME thread is up

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18.../#post25661026

If anyone who has a 2+2 acct wants to post a reference for me that would be appreciated, thanks

Just gonna sell at 1.2 don't really want to try for more; I want my package to be excellent value for stakers and at 1.2 it really should be since I probably have close to a +100 roi in the WSOP ME if it's really as soft as they say, I mean surely the players can't be worse than at Aussie Millions lol
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Old Mar 27, 2011, 6:15am   #9
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lol snapsold my 60% at 1.2 in 5 minutes with 15% on the waitlist

maybe i'll play more of a full series of events at the WSOP this year if it's really that easy to sell action
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Old Mar 27, 2011, 6:42am   #10
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lol snapsold my 60% at 1.2 in 5 minutes with 15% on the waitlist

maybe i'll play more of a full series of events at the WSOP this year if it's really that easy to sell action
Any chance I can buy a % or two? I'm testing a theory I have...
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