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Old Aug 15, 2011, 1:29pm   #1
alexos879
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Is a +EV decision "no matter what" worth it by virtue of "being the right play" if it costs you nearly half of a buyin?

I saw John Duthie v Tom Dwan HU and Duthie made a very good fold, yet all the 2+2 guys were berating Duthie saying it was a bad

fold, just because mathematically it was +EV (I think that's why it was anyway).
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Old Aug 15, 2011, 1:40pm   #2
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People who miss out on +eV decisions usually overestimate their edge.
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Old Aug 15, 2011, 2:30pm   #3
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welcome to ptips Alexos

having positive expected value in a hand (+EV) and folding is generally accepted as a poor play. in other words it isn't a great fold if by calling you will make a profit more often than not.

however - if you have only a tiny edge, and you feel you are better heads up than your opponent by a margin greater than that tiny edge, fold.

If I was heads up against Tom Dwan, and had even a small teeny weeny little edge, I'd shove my chips in so fast I would prove several laws of relativity.
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Old Aug 15, 2011, 9:22pm   #4
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Originally Posted by JustinShape View Post
People who miss out on +eV decisions usually overestimate their edge.
This is correct.

Also welcome to Ptips
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Old Aug 15, 2011, 9:47pm   #5
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Originally Posted by alexos879 View Post
Is a +EV decision "no matter what" worth it by virtue of "being the right play" if it costs you nearly half of a buyin?

I saw John Duthie v Tom Dwan HU and Duthie made a very good fold, yet all the 2+2 guys were berating Duthie saying it was a bad

fold, just because mathematically it was +EV (I think that's why it was anyway).
we would need to see the hand.

remember that 2+2 knew everyone's cards. duthie had to evaluate his hand based on dwan's range, which also means he has to evaluate dwan's range.

math isn't everything. you also have to think about the player himself. dwan is the kind of guy who is always going to give you an opportunity to win his chips. i don't think anyone would overestimate their edge against dwan, but they might be risk averse early in a game knowing that they are going to have many more opportunities in the coming hands.

finally, duthie might have had a read.

not saying any of these necessarily were the reason, just throwing in some mitigators.

i would like to see duthie - dwan though if anyone has a link?

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Old Aug 15, 2011, 10:20pm   #6
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if i was heads up against tom dwan, and was only at a small -ev spot agaisnt tom's range i would shove my chips in so fast i would prove several laws of relativity.

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Old Aug 16, 2011, 1:49am   #7
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is this the Q3 K6 hand?

obv we aren't seeing every hand and there might be unseen factors that influenced duthie here, also we don't know if the editing is honest. caveats out the way, here's a link to the hand;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fRYiwWD730&t=6m10s

consider this a spoiler warning for anyone intending to watch it.

based on what i know of dwan and the action so far:

dwan's range is not all two pair or better hands plus some air...if he has some combination of 63 62 32, you'd have expected action from him sooner. similarly, if he has air, you'd expect him to steal on the turn - which is not to say that he isn't checking 63 three times some of the time, nor that he isn't going to take it upon himself to check/check/checkraise air occasionally, although you might ask the question, what is he representing? similarly he isn't always slowplaying his kings up, sets and straights. nevertheless, imo, this action to me is heavily weighted towards a slowplayed monster.

the raise on the end is 1350 into a pot of 900, ergo john is being asked to call 1350 to win 2250 and needs 37.5% equity. standard durrrr overbet.

math...if you give dwan all possible combinations of K2, K6, 63, 62, 54, 66, 33 and 22 (for the record, i'd expect him to have had a nibble with any single pair which pretty much eliminates queens up, and he's never raising KX on the end because he can't get called), then there are 41 combinations where dwan wins and 21 combinations where duthie wins, ergo duthie has 33.9% equity. however if you weight this and take out 1/3 of sets, straights, flopped kings up and 2/3 of the rest, then dwan has 27.(3) winners and duthie has only 7. that's about 20.4%. long way short of what we need. add some air, but fuck you need a lot of air. in fact you need dwan to be stone cold bluffing more than 20% of the time to get to the equity you need. which he isn't.

i took some shortcuts in that, but the end result is so far away from what you need to call that i really don't need to tighten it up and try to quantify things like queens up for those couple of extra percent it might give you.

whether this is /correct/ depends on dwan's true range, and if any of us knew that we wouldn't be arguing about the hand on the internet.

tl;dr. good fold.

Kc
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