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Old Jan 11, 2012, 4:19am   #1
joeyjoejoejr
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Default $200 to Hero Prob bet

So I made a bet with a local live player.

The bet is to see whoever will profit more over 3 months starting Jan 1

He is playing in a live underground game. It runs 3 times a week. He usually doesnt play all 3 days each week. The game is 2/5NL. He plays decently and is a winner in the game. Sometimes the game will be kicked up to 5/10 and maybe 1020 and he is allowed to play. But any results outside of this club do not count. I know the house who will track the results for me and also said that he would make sure there is no funny business ie chip dumping from other players.

I can only play on stars. I play anystakes I want. I can play as much as I want. I had to start with $200 in my account and I cannot deposit. Bonus do count. I have supernova status from last year alreadly.


So far I am up about 1k and about 25k FPPs playing .10 25 and some 24 FL over 50k hands. Starting to mix in some .25 .50

He managed to book a 2k win so far

I love my chances (odds are even), assuming i get to 1 2 for the 3rd month I can probably get 10k in bonuses that month alone. Basically I only have to dodge him have a sick session while his game is kicked up

Also - Unlike some older posts on this forum this is a real bet!
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Old Jan 11, 2012, 5:21am   #2
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multiple levels of awesome degenerate poker betting.

cant add enough rep
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Old Jan 11, 2012, 8:51am   #3
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Amazing potential

I like your side I think you're probably a 3-1 favourite here barring a sick upswing for him at 10/20 etc since by the third month you'll be mass-tabling your usual stakes with solid bankroll management and no one can match that hourly live when the game doesnt run 24/7

Keep us posted

As long as you're only a few k behind tops by end of the first month, you'll be a HUGE favourite to crush him by the end. If you're ahead at the end of the first month it's basically over.

I assume the bet is for a substantial at least 5 figure amount since you're spending 3 months on it?
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Old Jan 11, 2012, 12:32pm   #4
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I love my chances (odds are even)

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Old Jan 11, 2012, 1:06pm   #5
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+1590 rake paid so probably got about 40% of that back in FPPs. Rake is killer at these stakes.

Owned by the ev at 50cent so far but clearly making up for that at FL
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Old Jan 12, 2012, 5:43am   #6
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Actually i think you're probably closer to a 5-1 favourite thinking about it
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Old Jan 14, 2012, 6:09pm   #7
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Actually i think you're probably closer to a 5-1 favourite thinking about it
Yeah it is a pretty horrible bet for him. I could probably just quit now sit on a 2k win and win 40% of the time.

Results to date
+$1560
+$650 50k FPP bonus cash
+$200 Stellar Rewards
+$200 intial roll

$2610 in roll


Been mixing in a little micro PLO

Villian here is annoying NIT that sometimes appears in this forum.
Turn?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.25(BB) Replayer
Hero ($94.26)
BB ($27.95)
UTG ($83.31)
CO ($76.09)
BTN ($28.13)
Hero antes $0.05
BB antes $0.05
UTG antes $0.05
CO antes $0.05
BTN antes $0.05

Dealt to Hero

fold, CO raises to $1, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, CO calls $2.50

FLOP ($7.50)

Hero bets $5.80, CO calls $5.80


TURN ($19.10)

Hero bets $11, CO raises to $22, HERO ???????????
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Old Jan 14, 2012, 11:33pm   #8
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call turn obv, river xf without hit, or maybe hero call if he is a tard




funny bet. tough to comment on without knowing the game he is in and your poker skill.


I mean if his game is really good he can easily have an EV of $1000 per session, so about 3mo * 4wk * 2.5 days * $1000 = $30k.

Making 30k out of $200... you need to double it about 11 times. One double, with aggressive BR management, might take about 20k hands, if you are really really good. so thats 220k hands or 73k per month.

So thats about how the numbers look if you are both crushing.

If we are pessimistic about both of your abilities, it should be about the same as in the first case. Now the same analysis in the optimistic/pessimistic matchup, you have no chance. And pess/opt, he has no chance.


Your real abilities could be anywhere between those 2 extremes, so no way to estimate odds. But thanks for speculating swoop
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Old Jan 15, 2012, 12:25am   #9
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call turn obv, river xf without hit, or maybe hero call if he is a tard
Correct turn line is to jam than hit two outer. Villian is TWLLM

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funny bet. tough to comment on without knowing the game he is in and your poker skill.


I mean if his game is really good he can easily have an EV of $1000 per session, so about 3mo * 4wk * 2.5 days * $1000 = $30k.

Making 30k out of $200... you need to double it about 11 times. One double, with aggressive BR management, might take about 20k hands, if you are really really good. so thats 220k hands or 73k per month.

So thats about how the numbers look if you are both crushing.

If we are pessimistic about both of your abilities, it should be about the same as in the first case. Now the same analysis in the optimistic/pessimistic matchup, you have no chance. And pess/opt, he has no chance.


Your real abilities could be anywhere between those 2 extremes, so no way to estimate odds. But thanks for speculating swoop
I have alreadly played more than 80k hands and I didnt play the first 4 days. I can probably play close to a million hands in 3 months. Even if all of those are at 1/2 and below I can probably rake back my way to a win just breaking even.

His game is really really good... he is component for a strickly live player but I doubt he is a $1k ev per session unless 10/20 happens to run often. Generally it is 2/5 twice a week and 5/10 once.

Also I can still go play in that game and I might if I hear its kicked up. It will be funny if a pot between us ends up deciding the result. Obv my results there wouldnt count to my result for the bet.
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Old Jan 15, 2012, 1:49am   #10
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It's a fold vs twllm over the hands i have against him he always plays draws passively on that turn and is never really bluffing or semibluffing as gross as that is. Had quite a few hands vs him at 100PLO rush on tilt back in the day. You really should balance your ranges against regs TWLLM

Call turn reev river vs most villains tho
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Last edited by SwoopAE; Jan 15, 2012 at 1:51am.
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