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Old Jun 24, 2012, 4:02pm   #11
Axis of Evil
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It doesn't look good for a Monday start with only four players. Taking the summer* off from wolfgame is probably inevitable. What is the minimum we can play with? When we hit that number in this thread then we will go, whenever that is.

*Northern Hemisphere bias noted.
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Old Jun 24, 2012, 6:48pm   #12
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It doesn't look good for a Monday start with only four players. Taking the summer* off from wolfgame is probably inevitable. What is the minimum we can play with? When we hit that number in this thread then we will go, whenever that is.

*Northern Hemisphere bias noted.
strictly speaking, the answer is 9. with less than 9 you have a serious balance problem because you only have 3 hangings. to some extent that can be remedied with the inclusion of a vig, but everything you do to try and balance has such a profound impact that trying to get to ~50% is like trying to fuck a swan.

we could probably devise an extreme shorthanded variant where the wolves don't get to eat. i will think about this.

Kc
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 12:48am   #13
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I'll play...
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 1:21am   #14
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I'll play...
Stud.

If Kc comes up with a good small game balance and wanted to be god then I would be the sixth player. Regulars like Swoop should be along shortly...
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 7:50am   #15
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Bit over it lately but ill play why not
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 2:27pm   #16
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oh great, now there are 7.

i started doing math, then realised that a six player game with one wolf, no specials, wolves cannot eat and village only gets 3 hangs is dead on 50%, since 5/6 x 4/5 x 3/4 = 3 x 4 x 5 / 4 x 5 x 6 = 3/6.

but now there are seven.

bank this observation for future games, and i'll see what i can come up with with 7.

Kc
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 3:33pm   #17
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desk fans make lighting cigarettes somewhat hazardous.

provisionally. seven players two wolves, wolves can't eat, i have it as:

wolves win:57.14%
village wins: 42.86%

but, if we have it so that, once one wolf is dead, every villager who dies gets to send God one pick for the final wolf, and if more than 50% of those villagers correctly identify the wolf then the village wins, this comes out at:

wolves win: 50.40%
village wins: 49.60%

that's pretty fucking close.

however i do have a reservation that in practice this might go violently out of whack, particularly if one player manages to clear himself somehow...if, say, someone clears himself on day 4 (when there would be 4 players alive) then that could move the overall village equity to a rather sickening 65.87%...that's a lot.

i will look for an improvement, but if we don't like this dead villagers sending a pick to god idea i can scrap it entirely and try some other shit.

Kc
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 4:09pm   #18
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awesome, i want to play Kc's almost completely fair shorthanded version
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 4:44pm   #19
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desk fans make lighting cigarettes somewhat hazardous.

provisionally. seven players two wolves, wolves can't eat, i have it as:

wolves win:57.14%
village wins: 42.86%

but, if we have it so that, once one wolf is dead, every villager who dies gets to send God one pick for the final wolf, and if more than 50% of those villagers correctly identify the wolf then the village wins, this comes out at:

wolves win: 50.40%
village wins: 49.60%

that's pretty fucking close.

however i do have a reservation that in practice this might go violently out of whack, particularly if one player manages to clear himself somehow...if, say, someone clears himself on day 4 (when there would be 4 players alive) then that could move the overall village equity to a rather sickening 65.87%...that's a lot.

i will look for an improvement, but if we don't like this dead villagers sending a pick to god idea i can scrap it entirely and try some other shit.

Kc
How have you accounted for the fact that the wolves can influence the vote? With 6 players and 1 wolf the village is less than 1/6 to hang a wolf, with 7 villagers and 2 wolves the village is definately less than 2/7 to hang a wolf day 1.

I like the idea of no (or perhaps limited) eats but I am not sure the balance is as you calculated.
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it's rather ironic that scenes like this are best accompanied by the eating of popcorn.
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Old Jun 25, 2012, 6:08pm   #20
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How have you accounted for the fact that the wolves can influence the vote?
by taking into consideration that the villagers can too.

when the village has specials, then with perfect play on all sides, a villager should always hang on day 1. this is obviously not the case when there are no specials.

when you start saying things like "well there are two wolves they can gang up on someone else and push attention away from each other and blah blah" you create an incalculable network of ohfuckoff, because all the things they would do to reduce the village chances of nailing wolves on day 1 also increase their chances of nailing wolves on later days.

there are simply too god damn many variables, then you add human beings who are irrational fucknuggets. there comes a point where you have to tell feynman to shove his fancy fucking diagrams up his ass and simulate. by which i mean play.

How do we feel about:

Seven players, 2 wolves who cannot eat. Every hanged villager sends picks to God equal to the number of remaining wolves within 1 hour of his death (or in advance).

As before, if the wolves would win under the conventional wolves = villagers rule, then if more than 50% of hanged villagers correctly identify the wolves in their picks to God, village wins.

This comes out at roughly 45.5% village equity, with the picks to God contributing about 2.65% over all. It feels like this leaves about the right amount of wiggle room to balance things like "this guy should never be a wolf after post # we never get to him" and so on.

Thoughts?

My other ideas would be, (i) the village can't hang villagers but the wolves can eat every night, and the far more complicated (ii) an inquisitor special who can find wolves at night and perhaps kill them (but if he hits a villager, perhaps nothing happens). perhaps there would be no confirmation of his role on death and perhaps he would be forbidden from making mention of his role and knowledge in thread, perhaps anyone who made mention either directly or indirectly of him would find themselves immediately killed. perhaps simultaneously the wolves would be able to convert villagers to wolves at night, but if they bit the inquisitor they would die. perhaps there are a lot of perhaps in this suggestion, it's perhaps a bit complicated, but it feels like it could balance and small games are a good place to try out chaotic ideas, perhaps.

(ii) obviously needs a lot of thinking about. i recommend we go with one of the other ideas, but i can flesh this out more if there is interest.

Kc
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