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$1 Million SNG Promotion Goes Live

, 2005-08-02, by TwoGun

Noble Poker has rolled out their signature promotion- their $1 million sit and go challenge. The first person to win seven $10+$2 "Million $ Challenge" sit and go tournaments will win $1 million. People that are able to win six, but not seven, in a row will win $75k, and those that manage to win only five in a row receive $25k. There is also a prize of $250 for people that are able to place first or second in five sit and gos in a row. To win these prizes, the tournaments would need to be played within a 30-day period.

As previously detailed in this PokerTips.org news article, the chances of winning this many sit and gos in a row is very low. Assuming a person had a 10% chance of winning any sit and go, here are the probabilities of winning 5,6, or 7 SNGs in a row:

Five: 1 in 100,000
Six: 1 in 1,000,000
Seven: 1 in 10,000,000

Of course, poker is game involving a lot of skill, so someone who is extremely good at poker has a much better chance of winning this promotion. Below are the probabilities of winning 5,6, or 7 sit and gos in a row, assuming one has a 20% chance of winning any one sit and go.

Five: 1 in 3,125
Six: 1 in 15,625
Seven: 1 in 78,125

However, a 20% chance of winning a sit and go is an extremely high chance. Very few, if any people can manage to do this. A more realistic percentage for a very skilled player might be around 14%, which would yield these probabilities:

Five: 1 in 18,593
Six: 1 in 132,810
Seven: 1 in 948, 645

The incredible differences in these probabilities goes to show that being skilled at sit and gos will go a long way to helping one win this promotion. In reality, the percentage chance will be highly dependent on the level of competition at these sit and gos. If a lot of sit and go sharks flood this promotion, one's chance of winning will drop sharply. If a lot of casual players who do not know sit and go strategy enter these tournaments, one's probability of winning any one sit and go would increase.

It should also be noted that this promotion charges an extra dollar fee compared to traditional $10 sit and gos. When one plays a normal sit and go tournament, the house charges a one dollar fee (hence $10+$1). However, Noble Poker is charging a two dollar fee to help fund the prizes of this promotion ($10+$2).

This extra dollar means that Noble may actually make money on their promotion. The Expected Value (EV) of the promotional winnings for the average player (with 10% chance to win and 20% to come in 1st or second) is $0.51. Since that player is paying an additional $1 fee, the EV would be -$0.49.

For lesser-skilled players, the EV of the promotion would be even worse. However, a skilled player could have a positive expected value from this promotion. A person with a 14% chance of winning a sit and go and a 14% chance of coming in second has an EV of $2.39, after taking into account the fee.

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