Changing Pace
Note: This is only for shorthanded games (6 or fewer people) and to
be used mainly against other good players.One thing that most people do wrong, including myself at
times, is play consistently. You may play your AQ differently
sometimes preflop or when you hit an Ace or Queen. You may bet a
different amount (in No-Limit) or choose to jam the pot at a different
time (in Limit). However, most decent players will be able to identify
you as a certain type of player: tight-aggressive, very
tight-aggressive, etc.
One way to help your earnings is to
simply switch up your play sometimes. This way, when they're expecting
that you're going to bluff, you bluff rarely because they'll call you
more. Likewise, if your bets are usually for value, you start to bluff
at the pot a lot. People generally won't catch on if you do this
discreetly, and it can add more mystery to your play.
This
strategy is obviously more effective at No-Limit because it is much
easier to bluff at NL. However, it can be used at Limit as well.
Generally, the game must be 5 or fewer people (preferably 4 people
total.) With stakes large enough, you can effectively bluff at the
flop or turn if you played it tight at first, and you will receive
more callers for big bets if you bluffed earlier.
For those of you who are mathematically inclined, I'll use some game
theory to prove my assertions. Suppose you are playing a soccer match
and you have a penalty kick. You predict that if you kick left, you
will have an 80% chance of scoring if the goalie does not expect left,
and you have a 60% of scoring if you kick to the right and the goalie
does not expect right. However, if the goalie blocks left and you kick
left, you only have a 45% chance of scoring, and if the goalie blocks
to the right, you will only score 35% of the time. Here's a matrix to
quickly summarize:
|
Goalkeeper Blocks Left |
Goalkeeper Blocks Right |
You Shoot Left |
45% |
80% |
You Shoot Right |
60% |
35% |
As you can see, even though shooting left may be what you
are best at, it is in your interest to shoot right from time to time
because if the goalie always knows you will shoot left, you will score
less than if you shot to the right sometimes.
Now, instead
of percent chance of scoring, think of the numbers as hourly profit.
Left means playing your standard tight-aggressive game and the right
means playing a more loose game.
|
Opponent Expects Tight |
Opponent Expects Loose |
You play Tight-Aggressive |
$45 / hr |
$80 / hr |
You play Loose-Aggressive |
$60 / hr |
$35 / hr |
Bad players may not 'block' at all or will always block
the wrong way, so you can keep on playing your standard
tight-aggressive game and earn $80 an hour. However, against good
players, they'll quickly realize what you are doing and defend against
it. Your profit drops down to $45 an hour.
Now, suppose you
play tight-aggressive 70% of the time and looser 30% of the time. If
they continue to just play against you as if you were a
tight-aggressive all the time, you will earn $49.5 an hour:
(0.7
* $45 + 0.3 * $60) = $49.5
Now, if your opponents caught on
to what you were doing and played you as a tight-aggressive 80% of the
time and a looser player 20% of the time, your profit would actually
increase as long as they don't know exactly when you were playing
which way. Your profit would be $52.9:
(0.7 * 0.8 * $45) +
(0.7 * 0.2 * $80) + (0.3 * 0.8 * $60) + (0.3 * 0.2 * $35) = $52.9
So,
in order for them to defend against your changing pace, they need to
know when you are changing pace. Obviously, if they treated you as a
tight-aggressive 70% of the time and they were correct the whole time,
your profit would drop. However, as shown before, predicting a change
of pace when there is none will actually help the person who is
changing pace, so people generally will treat you as the same even
when you switch your style!
Thus, I recommend you change
your pace some, but randomize it so they can't catch on and correctly
predict when you vary your style.
Next Article:
Mind Games